Cape Town - Ahead of the general elections, the EFF and MKP have been dominating online election conversations in the country, according to a new report by the Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change (CABC).
The CABC’s Bi-Weekly Social Listening Updates and Recommendations for Electoral Engagement, which analysed the conversation between March 18 and April 1, state that the EFF and MKP continue to dominate the online election conversation.
The main topics of conversation around the EFF centred on Naledi Chirwa being moved from position 40 to 200 in the party’s MP list. The mentions of the MKP centred on the failure of the ANC’s court case, which sought to have the MKP deregistered, along with former president Jacob Zuma’s car accident.
“The online conversation around the upcoming elections and political climate within South Africa received more than 320 000 mentions between March 18 and April 1. Researchers detected high-engagement mentions of the election of 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye, President of Senegal.
“Some individuals used this announcement as an opportunity to urge South Africans to vote for a young president, with the candidate in mind being EFF leader Julius Malema,” the report stated.
It said that #VoteEFF2024 became the most used hashtag during the period, with more than 21 000 mentions, followed by #VoteMK2024. These hashtags were used to mobilise support for the two parties.
“A recent judgment by the Electoral Court has dismissed a case brought by the ANC against the IEC, which sought to argue that the MK Party was erroneously registered and thus should be struck from the ballot.”
Asked if the report suggested that the EFF and the MKP’s online dominance indicated that the two parties were most likely to be favourites in the coming elections, CABC said they only analysed online conversations.
“Data is collected using keywords such as ‘vote’ or ‘elect’, which do not favour individuals or political parties.
“Using these keywords, the CABC has noted that the EFF and MK are mentioned more than other parties. We cannot speculate on whether the MK Party and EFF’s popularity will translate into votes or whether they will be dominant in the polls.”
Commenting on whether online dominance by a political party can translate to real votes, political analyst Professor Sipho Seepe said the popularity online simply meant they were the only parties shaping the real debate in the country.
“Other main parties provide solutions that are not that far off from those of the ANC. The current ANC policies have brought us hardship,” said Seepe.
He said before the MKP hit the scene, South Africa’s political discourse was shaped by two main parties, the EFF on the left and the DA on the right, All parties fell in between the two, with the ANC dominating the centre without having an ideological impact.
“The emergence of the MK Party has tilted the balance towards the left of the political spectrum. The effect of this is to change the entire political dynamic. Disgruntled left-leaning supporters of the ANC now have a choice between the EFF and the MK Party.
“What is clear is that the MK Party is gaining momentum. The ANC has been caught with its pants down. It is both directionless and leaderless. It does not have anything to offer beyond pleading for one more chance. Yes, conversations are indicative of an emerging pattern,” said Seepe.