Johannesburg - In 13 months' time, the Springboks play their first match of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, and everything they are currently doing has one eye on ensuring the Webb Ellis Cup remains in South Africa.
That is why ticking the massive psychological box of back-to-back victories over the All Blacks is so important, as are other milestones along the way to France 2023, such as kicking into touch the hoodoo that is winning in Australia.
That is next up, incidentally, with games in Adelaide and Sydney later this month, and how much stronger will the Springbok mindset be to overcome that challenge if they can put the All Blacks away Saturday at Ellis Park?
The Boks really are not going to get a better shot at a double KO of their old enemy in a hurry because the rugby world only gets the All Blacks in a vulnerable state once a decade, and only for a month or two before they reinvent themselves.
To illustrate, the last time the Boks beat the All Blacks on successive weekends, in 2009, the Kiwis went home, corrected some basics in their game such as handling the Boks’ aerial game, and rebounded to win the 2011 and 2015 World Cups.
In 2022, it is déjà vu, with the All Blacks seeming to have unlearned their skills in the air, and a number of Springboks have said this week that it is not if, but when, the All Blacks rediscover their mojo.
And those same Boks, as well as coach Jacques Nienaber, have added the caveat that the rugby world will welcome a rejuvenated New Zealand team, but not just yet! And certainly not on Saturday…
And I can’t see it happening at Ellis Park because —and I will use a quaint Kiwi phrase here — they just don’t have the cattle. Not in the tight forwards, anyway…
A fatal weakness in the primary phases of the game — the oldest cliché in rugby of “it starts up front” holds painfully true for the All Blacks — is the reason the New Zealanders have lost five of their last six games and fallen from No 1 on the world rankings to No 5, their lowest ever position.
They still have the back division to cut defences to shreds, especially with Richie Mo’unga back at flyhalf, but without front-foot ball from their forwards, those big guns cannot fire as they so often have on the Highveld where the fast, dry pitches invite a running game.
And that is also why the All Blacks thrive at altitude — their high-paced running game tires out the defenders and promotes their attacking skills. Defending is more exhausting than attacking.
It is why so often over the 20 years we have seen the All Blacks win games in South Africa at the death — they run the Boks off their feet and then the killer blows come at the end.
The obvious way to stop this trend is to ensure Mo’unga’s backs don’t get quality ball. That is what happened in Nelspruit last week and I can’t see anything changing Saturday because the Springbok pack is significantly superior to their opponents, and the tourists can’t fix major structural problems in a week.
In a nutshell, a focused, motivated Springbok team — and this is automatic when you are playing New Zealand — should have too much firepower for vulnerable opponents and therein is the winning of the game.
Springboks team: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Jesse Kriel, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (capt), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Jasper Wiese, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Kwagga Smith 22, Herschel Jantjies, 23 Willie le Roux.
All Blacks team: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 David Havili, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (capt), 6 Shannon Frizzell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitlock, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Akira Ioane, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Quinn Tupaea.
IOL Sport