Durban – The future of KwaZulu-Natal’s only metropolitan area, eThekwini, hangs in the balance after the IEC in the province dropped its preliminary results for the local government elections this week, which revealed that 18 municipalities did not obtain a majority vote, one of which being eThekwini, forcing political parties to revert to national structures to find a solution.
The coalitions between political parties may be on the cards, but with that also comes the possibility of more bloodshed and power struggles, which the area has seen its fair share of in the months leading up to the local elections. Last month, police minister Bheki Cele singled out Durban as one of the epicentres of political violence.
What makes the stakes higher in eThekwini, is its economic flex, as it contributes more than 50% to KZN’s GDP and around 10% to the national GDP. Big economic contributors like Msunduzi and Newcastle also have not obtained a majority vote.
But patience is needed in order to plot a way forward, according to political analyst Lukhona Mnguni and violence monitor in KZN, Mary De Haas, who both concurred that it is too early to make predictions on who will govern the city now that it is has been declared hung.
With KZN’s voters going in the direction of the ANC and IFP, and also the DA, Mnguni referred back to the late 90s and early 2000s period, when the ANC and IFP formed a coalition. But that did not last for long, he added, as the ANC grew more ambitious over the years, leaving the relationship to turn sour.
Mnguni believes that there is a thirst for a stable coalition in KZN.
“It is too early to make any determinations and try to predict what is going to happen, given the fact that there is quite a lot at stake in KZN, with the hung councils, including eThekwini, so the stakes are quite high.
“If I read the room well, the possibility of a return to ANC and IFP cooperation is possible. Other than that I think we just have to be patient and see how issues develop, as there may also be cross cutting cooperation agreements because political parties have vested interests in different ways in different municipalities. So perhaps we may not see cooperation everywhere as parties may want to safeguard their interests in particular municipalities,” Mnguni told Independent Media.
The ANC had ruled eThekwini for a long time before being knocked off its podium in the recent elections, losing its majority vote after securing 42%, with the DA obtaining 25.6% and the EFF with 10.4%. The IFP obtained 7.1% in eThekwini but 24.2% of the provincial vote.
The violence that engulfed the city in July, an incident many believe started because of infighting within the ANC, cost the council billions of rands in damages, further hindering its ability to deliver efficient services.
The killing of an ANC councillor candidate in Cato Crest, Siyabonga Mkhize, who was shot dead last month rocked the province, coming almost a month after three ANC members were shot dead in Inanda.
In light of the recent alleged politically motivated killings, De Haas said she was concerned about a potential for further periodic killings and violence. De Haas said, however, that there is a positive side to it as parties are forced to work together.
“A lot depends on the type of coalitions that result. We’ve seen how these coalitions in other parts of the country don’t always work. So that may cause political instability. But it is an interesting time for eThekwini and who gets it.
“I don't want to mention names, but another small party was talking to me before the elections about how the ANC were kind of already approaching them about coalitions. So the ANC might have seen it coming. I just hope that whoever ends up in government, whether it's a coalition or not, does their work properly,” De Haas said.
Political Bureau