South Africa has reached a significant milestone in its energy landscape, recording 160 days without loadshedding — the longest period in over four years. This achievement is attributed to an increase in available baseload power and the growing contribution of private wind energy developers.
However, industry experts warn that sustaining this progress will require substantial investment in wind power and the expansion of transmission infrastructure.
Eskom’s available generation capacity exceeded 35,000 MW as of August 2024, surpassing peak demand by over 3,000 MW. This success was bolstered by 3,400 MW of wind energy, which played a critical role in stabilising the grid during periods when baseload power was insufficient.
Wind energy, now a vital component of South Africa’s energy mix, operates alongside baseload generation and solar power to ensure a more reliable electricity supply.
Despite its growing importance, wind energy currently contributes less than 3% of South Africa’s total energy supply. Mark Tanton, CEO and co-founder of renewable energy developer Red Cap, stresses the need for a significant increase in this percentage. “To do that, we must finalise the curtailment policy and expand the transmission infrastructure,” Tanton said.
South Africa’s wind power capacity, the largest in Africa, still lags behind global benchmarks. In Europe, wind accounts for 20% of the overall energy mix, with plans to increase this share to over 50% by 2050. Denmark, a global leader in wind energy, derives 58% of its power from wind.
Eskom’s peak demand periods occur outside daylight hours, when solar power is unavailable, but wind energy continues to be generated. This makes wind power uniquely positioned to prevent load-shedding. With wind generation dispersed across the country, South Africa benefits from a robust and distributed network of energy sources, contributing to a more resilient grid.
“Wind produces electricity at various times across the country because wind strength varies,” Tanton explained. “The more you diversify your energy mix, the greater the energy security and the lower the risk of loadshedding.”
However, a diversified energy mix hinges on sufficient infrastructure. Eskom’s transmission lines are at or near capacity in many regions, limiting the amount of renewable energy that can be integrated into the grid.
This capacity constraint has already affected 23 wind projects under Bid Window 6 of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme, which could not be awarded due to insufficient grid capacity.
To address this issue, the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) is expected to approve a curtailment policy that would allow for a maximum 10% curtailment of renewable energy projects, with compensation for developers when they can generate power but are unable to export it to the grid.
Eskom estimates that this policy could initially enable an additional 3 GW of wind power to be connected to the grid. Red Cap is pro-actively developing grid infrastructure, including a 116 km powerline for the Impofu wind farm project, the longest privately permitted powerline for any renewable energy project in South Africa.
Nevertheless, scaling up transmission infrastructure requires a partnership between the private sector and government. “Accelerating investment in transmission infrastructure through private involvement will be helpful — if it avoids inadvertently creating micro monopolies who control access to the grid,” Tanton cautioned.
IOL